Fantasy Football Keepers: Finding Value From Last Season

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Fantasy season is almost upon us! And in some leagues that means selecting your keepers for the upcoming season.

For those unaware, a keeper league allows you to keep typically 1-3 players on your team from last year. The round that they were drafted from the previous season is the round they will occupy in this seasons draft. For example, if you drafted Allen Hurns in the 14th round (his 2015 ADP) he would make an excellent keeper this season as his current ADP is the 6th round. Hurns finished as the 16th best fantasy football receiver* last year so getting that type of value from a 14th round pick is highly desirable.

That’s the goal, plain and simple. To find the players on your team that offer you the most value. But, as with anything in fantasy football it’s not quite as black and white as all that. It’s not as easy as RoundA-RoundB=Value. You also have to consider whether that player is worth their current ADP, the value of the players postions, as well as taking into consideration the value of the actual rounds you’re gaining. Going back to our Hurns example; by keeping Hurns you’re gaining eight rounds. Sounds pretty good right? But what if you could keep Todd Gurley instead? Gurley’s 2015 ADP was in the 5th round and this season he’s being drafted in the 1st. That’s a difference of four rounds. This is an example of how RoundA-RoundB=Value doesn’t hold up. Hurn’s eight rounds just don’t have as much value as Gurley’s  four. Getting a 1st rounder in the 5th round is just too good to pass up. Not only did Gurly perform better than Hurns (he was the 6th best running back last season), but top tier running backs are simply more highly prized than most wide receivers. For those reasons, Gurley’s four rounds are more valuable than Hurn’s eight.

And let’s talk more about rounds for a second. As a draft progresses rounds decrease in value. The reason for this is the quality of players dwindle, and as a result your chance for striking fantasy gold dwindle as well. So, those four rounds in and of themselves have more value than the eight Hurns will gain you.

There is so much more that goes into fantasy football than A+B=C. It’s more like

equation

And it’s not all numbers either, because honestly stats can be manipulated to tell pretty much any story you want them to tell. Some people will tell you to check your gut at the door when it comes to drafting. I am not one of those people. If you have a player that you feel strongly about, that you really feel will outplay his draft price, pick him up.

Now please don’t be crazy and use that advice to take a kicker in the sixth round. Do your research, be smart, mock draft like crazy, and check back to FootballFemme early and often for advice. But when it comes to selecting keepers these factors are a good place to start.

 

 

*fantasy stats based on ESPN standard scoring

 

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