Fantasy Football Keepers: Finding Value Pt 2

Before I get to the table/spreadsheet and what it all means. I want to give you a little background on this “project”.

The purpose of this “project” was to use last season’s ADP comparative to the season’s ADP to find likely keepers. I used my handy-dandy site  www.fantasyfootballcalculator.com to compare 2015 info to 2016 info and I was jotting down notes on my notepad. This player improved this many rounds, this player decreased this many rounds, etc. etc. etc.

Then my husband got involved.

My husband, God bless his soul, is an extremely intelligent man and oh-so helpful. He suggested I move all of the info to a google spreadsheet, and come up with a more precise comparison. Plus it would surely look more professional than all this chicken scratch I was currently working with. Okay, that doesn’t seem too bad.

Until I realized I had somehow copied and pasted wrong. Alright let’s delete all that info, and start over.

Then I had to go through and take out all the players from 2015 that were not being drafted, and all of the rookies being drafted in this seasons draft. Now my cells didn’t line up so that’s going to throw off my equation. I need to go through and tidy this up. By tidying, now my color coded lines don’t match up to player positions like they should, so I fix that.

Finally I have my values. I format the table to highlight the players who have had the most drastic increase in average draft position, but that’s just not enough. After tinkering I go a step further and feature all the players who not only increased their draft value but also offered you, the dedicated fantasy player, the most bang for your buck. How did I do this? By dividing their draft position increase by their current average draft round giving you their ultimate Fantasy Keeper Value.

2(+) hours later*, I am so glad that I took the easy way out. Thank you husband.

I sincerely hope that someone, somewhere out there finds this chart useful. Without further ado:

2016 ADP Player Position ADP Increase FKV
3 Todd Gurley RB 53 17.67
7 David Johnson RB 119 17.00
16 Jordy Nelson WR 204 12.75
22 Thomas Rawls RB 198 9.00
30 Kelvin Benjamin WR 190 6.33
17 Devonta Freeman RB 87 5.12
1 Antonio Brown WR 5 5.00
39 Jeremy Langford RB 181 4.64
40 Jordan Reed TE 180 4.50
47 Doug Baldwin WR 173 3.68
48 Dion Lewis RB 172 3.58
15 Allen Robinson WR 51 3.40
54 Jay Ajayi RB 166 3.07
8 DeAndre Hopkins WR 24 3.00
32 Cam Newton QB 88 2.75
4 Odell Beckham Jr WR 11 2.75
56 Allen Hurns WR 128 2.29
46 Matt Jones RB 93 2.02

These are your top 18 keeper prospects based on trending ADP numbers. Of course, this is based on their Average Draft Position and not their Actual Draft Position. So if  you took Antonio brown 1st overall he’s not going to have the same FKV (fantasy keeper value-another suggestion by my husband) as the chart suggests. But, it does give you a good idea of trending players, and a good smattering of fantasy prospects that I would suggest you at least consider keeping.

Some of my personal favorites are David Johnson, Dion Lewis, and Allen Hurns.

I hope this chart changes your life, as much as it changed mine.

 

 

*In my husbands defense, he is far better with mathematical analysis and chart building than I am. He expected this “project” to take me thirty minutes. He was wrong.

 

 

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Fantasy Football Keepers: Finding Value From Last Season

Fantasy season is almost upon us! And in some leagues that means selecting your keepers for the upcoming season.

For those unaware, a keeper league allows you to keep typically 1-3 players on your team from last year. The round that they were drafted from the previous season is the round they will occupy in this seasons draft. For example, if you drafted Allen Hurns in the 14th round (his 2015 ADP) he would make an excellent keeper this season as his current ADP is the 6th round. Hurns finished as the 16th best fantasy football receiver* last year so getting that type of value from a 14th round pick is highly desirable.

That’s the goal, plain and simple. To find the players on your team that offer you the most value. But, as with anything in fantasy football it’s not quite as black and white as all that. It’s not as easy as RoundA-RoundB=Value. You also have to consider whether that player is worth their current ADP, the value of the players postions, as well as taking into consideration the value of the actual rounds you’re gaining. Going back to our Hurns example; by keeping Hurns you’re gaining eight rounds. Sounds pretty good right? But what if you could keep Todd Gurley instead? Gurley’s 2015 ADP was in the 5th round and this season he’s being drafted in the 1st. That’s a difference of four rounds. This is an example of how RoundA-RoundB=Value doesn’t hold up. Hurn’s eight rounds just don’t have as much value as Gurley’s  four. Getting a 1st rounder in the 5th round is just too good to pass up. Not only did Gurly perform better than Hurns (he was the 6th best running back last season), but top tier running backs are simply more highly prized than most wide receivers. For those reasons, Gurley’s four rounds are more valuable than Hurn’s eight.

And let’s talk more about rounds for a second. As a draft progresses rounds decrease in value. The reason for this is the quality of players dwindle, and as a result your chance for striking fantasy gold dwindle as well. So, those four rounds in and of themselves have more value than the eight Hurns will gain you.

There is so much more that goes into fantasy football than A+B=C. It’s more like

equation

And it’s not all numbers either, because honestly stats can be manipulated to tell pretty much any story you want them to tell. Some people will tell you to check your gut at the door when it comes to drafting. I am not one of those people. If you have a player that you feel strongly about, that you really feel will outplay his draft price, pick him up.

Now please don’t be crazy and use that advice to take a kicker in the sixth round. Do your research, be smart, mock draft like crazy, and check back to FootballFemme early and often for advice. But when it comes to selecting keepers these factors are a good place to start.

 

 

*fantasy stats based on ESPN standard scoring

 

Rob Gronkowski 2016 Fantasy Football Profile

Trying to decide if Gronkowski is worth a first round pick? Football Femme has the answer! Or at least an educated guess

Your Fantasy Football Coach

Last season, Rob Gronkowski was the top tight end in Fantasy Football to the surprise of absolutely no one.

Gronk has established himself as an elite Fantasy tight end ever since his second season in the league in 2011. He scored 241 points, and that was with teammate Aaron Hernandez finishing with 138 Fantasy points.

Since then, he has finished in the top two every season he’s played. Of course, that is barring his 2013 season which was prematurely ended Week 7 due to an ACL tear.

So should you ride The Gronk Party Bus again this season? Is there any reason not to draft him? Let’s take a quick look at his 2015 Fantasy Football performance before answering that question.

Rob Gronkowski: 2015 Fantasy Football Review

Gronk finished the 2015 season with 72 receptions, 1,176 yards, and 11 touchdowns. That  translated to 184 Fantasy points.

He finished with fewer receptions than the previous…

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How To Utilize The NFL Strength of Schedule Rankings For Fantasy Football

There are only 80 days until NFL kickoff and there’s no time like the present to start working on you draft strategy. While SOS shouldn’t be the primary source to influence your draft scheme it can be extremely helpful when deciding between players. When combined with offensive rankings you can pick teams with players who are more likely to produce fantasy football studs. But that doesn’t mean that teams with a tough schedule should be overlooked

Teams in the bottom third of rankings will have more games where they are playing ahead. This benefits running backs who will be used to run out the clock. It creates a more difficult environment for quarterbacks who will be more likely to play more conservatively to maintain their lead. Teams with the toughest SOS will be playing from behind. This benefits wide receivers. Quarterbacks will take the biggest hit due to tough defenses.

The site FFtoolbox took it a step farther by breaking it down by points allowed by position by opposing team.

I just brought all this info to one accessible place!

The main benefit though (as stated before) is using SOS to choose between players that you already like. So, if there are two RBs that you really like and one has a tougher schedule, it makes more sense to go for the guy with the easier schedule. Easy Peasy.

Start your draft day engines boys and girls. It’s right around the corner.

Rank Team Offensive Rank Position To Target
1. San Francisco 49ers 32nd
2. Atlanta Falcons 21st KR
3. Los Angeles Rams 29th
4. New Orleans Saints 6th TE
5. Seattle Seahawks 8th RB
6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20th RB/TE
7. Arizona Cardinals 2nd
8. New York Jets 10th
9. New England Patriots 3rd KR
10. Buffalo Bills 12th
11. Miami Dolphins 27th
12. Carolina Panthers 1st TE
13. San Diego Chargers 25th TE
14. Denver Broncos 18th
15. Oakland Raiders 16th DEF
16. Kansas City Chiefs 9th TE
17. Washington Redskins 11th K
18. Minnesota Vikings 19th DEF
19. Houston Texans 26th DEF
20. Baltimore Ravens 24th K
21. Cleveland Browns 30th KR
22. Indianapolis Colts 23rd DEF
23. Pittsburgh Steelers 7th WR
24. Tennessee Titans 28th DEF
25. Jacksonville Jaguars 14th DEF
26. Philadelphia Eagles 13th K
27. Cincinnati Bengals 5th WR
28. Detroit Lions 17th QB
29. Dallas Cowboys 31st WR
30. Chicago Bears 22nd DEF
31. New York Giants 4th QB/RB
32. Green Bay Packers 5th QB

*SOS from ESPN Offensive Rankings from OddsShark Rankings based on FFtoolbox

Dynasty Drafting 101

Let’s get down to business.

From my research there are three overall types of fantasy drafters:

  1. In it to win it/Go big or go home
  2. Playing for next season
  3. Some combination of the two

Go Big or Go Home

These drafters aren’t worried about anything more than drafting big name players who can offer immediate results. There primary basis for draft selection is recent fantasy success, as opposed to long term potential.

Pros:

  • You get instant results: You don’t have to worry about how a rookie is going to fit into a new system, or have to speculate about production. Of course, not all players are gong to play up to their last season potential, but it’s very similar to a typical draft. You just have to use your best judgement
  • It’s easy to do: For new players who are intimidated by a new format or a new league. drafting in this manner can offer some level of comfort. There’s also less research involved.

Cons:

  • You will need to draft based more on position: When you’re taking all the “brand name players” you’re going to have to fill your starting roster positions in order to get the most bang for you buck. This means that you may have to pass up that extra wide receiver you have your eye on in order to land a top tier quarterback.
  • Your team will not be a strong in the long run: Every player comes with an expiration date, and by focusing on the current best options you will miss out on players that offer more long term value. Dynasty leagues are suppose to be a long term investment, so this is definitely something to keep in mind if you decide to use this strategy.

Playing For Next Season

These drafters are playing the long game. They focus on rookies and players that can help them for years to come.

Pros:

  • Stronger team as the years progress: By picking players that will contribute to your team for multiple years you don’t have to worry about having an off season. You’re not picking players who will soon retire, or are at the peak of their fantasy prowess. You’re pick young fantasy players who still have a lot to give.
  • You’ve researched your team: Taking the road less traveled means you’re going to have to do some extra mapping. You’re not planning for a battle, you’re plotting a war. By putting in the extra effort that comes with picking players based on long term potential, you’re going to have a better understanding of your players, and the strengths and weaknesses of your team.

Cons:

  • You have to research your team: Yes, this is a double edged sword. Novice dynasty drafters (not to mention those new to fantasy football in general) may find all the research required tedious and over whelming. There’s a lot of stats that will have to be sifted through. My advice, especially if you’re new to fantasy, is to find a fantasy author you trust, and base your rankings primarily on their advice, tweaking for your own preference. It’s not for the faint of heart.
  • The first year may be tough: If your passing up on big name players in favor of their younger and sometimes untried counterparts, your first season may not be as productive as some of the other managers. Of course, you may knock it out of the park and pick only the most productive rookies, who go on to have ridiculous fantasy years, but it’s a pretty big risk for your first season

Some Combination Of The Two: 

Then there are those drafters who try to balance out their teams with veterans and rookies. This seems like the obvious choice right? But, it’s tough to do. When is it better to take a risk than bet on the sure thing? What positions are more risky than others? If you’re going for the combo, my advice is to have a sound drafting strategy that you feel comfortable with and stick to it. I’ll delve farther into some modified dynasty drafting strategies in the next post.

If I’ve said it before, I’ll say it again. There’s no better way to prepare for a draft than MOCK DRAFTS, MOCK DRAFTS, MOCK DRAFTS. This is especially true for those starting a new league, and those that are new to the dynasty format. This is the site I am currently using:

https://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/mockdrafts

Until next time, you know what to do!

Fantasy Football: How to Evaluate a Trade

Trading is a necessity in the business of fantasy football. It is a great way to improve your team and manage injuries and bye weeks. But trading can be intimidating for novice fantasy football players, and before you know it, you may be faced with some fast and furious trade offers. That’s why I’m here to help. Here is a quick guideline on how to analyze a trade.

A fantasy team comes with responsibilities, and one of those responsibilities is checking your league emails. Scattered in those league emails will be trade offers. There is nothing worse than spending time trying to research a trade to better your team, only to have it go unnoticed. So always observe. Check your emails, check your texts. Someone is spending time to improve their team. The least you can do is look at the offer. Trust me, when you have two running backs down with injury, you will want someone to listen to your trade offers to rebuild your team.

First, you need to identify the skill level of each player. If you click on the players name it will bring up the fantasy scores by week. Check the player being offered first because you should have a pretty decent idea of the fantasy value of your own players. The two main things you will need to check are: the health of the player(s) offered, and the average points per game. Don’t just go by name recognition. Be sure to evaluate the player. Next, compare the player being offered to the player you would have to give up. Never take a player whose average points per game are much lower than who you are trading away. A couple of points difference is fine. Especially if you have a need for that particular position. But a fair trade is going to be pretty balanced. If a trade seems too good to be true, it probably is. Now this will be about the only time in fantasy football that bye weeks matter. If you are desperate for a tight end, you’re not going to want a tight end fast approaching a bye week. Not only that but check match ups. If a player is going up against some really tough defenses (just check the current defensive rankings) then it’s going to affect their fantasy value. There’s a lot to evaluate in a fantasy trade. Don’t take it lightly. 

Of course, there will be times that you will be desperate for a player or a particular position, and if a suitable player can’t be found on the waiver wire, you may end up with a trade that is a little more unbalanced than you would like. These will be a little harder to analyze. To make some headway into solving this tricky situation, you will first need to determine just how badly you’re in need. Rank your situation from 1:You need a player but you can afford to find a subpar replacement off the waiver wire if you can’t make a trade happen, to 10: Your season will END if you don’t make this trade. If the player’s game average falls within one point of your above ranking then the trade is an option. Here’s some more advice. A kicker and a defense will pretty much always be of less value than any other position. And the inverse to this player dilemma is true as well. If you know a fellow league manager is scrambling for a position that you have some depth at, make them an offer. You may end up getting a great value out of the deal.

But for every good trade that goes through, you will see plenty that you’re going to decline. Here’s the deal though; Even if you don’t like a trade at first glance, don’t just click the “deny” button, take the time to analyze the offer. This is as much for your benefit, as for the benefit of other league members. Even if a trade seems unbalanced, take five minutes to study and consider it. Yeah I know, there is no way that you’re trading your stud quarterback for a kicker. But by analyzing the offer you can deduce a few things. First, it reveals the needs of other teams, and what they have to offer for value. Second, it can show you the value of the players you have. So even a dead end trade offer can be enlightening. The opposite is true as well. Never automatically accept a trade. Always analyze the offer.

If you have sat staring at your screen, switching back and forth between ESPN and Yahoo, and you really can’t decide if a trade is in your best interest, you can always check out fantasy football trade analyzers. There are more than a few out there. Google it, try out a few, find one you like and stick with it. They will analyze your trade offer for free, and give you some good feedback. And if you want to crowdsource an assessment, check out twitter. Use the #fantasyfootballhelp to encourage people to weigh in. People love to share their opinion and one or two may have some really insightful criticism.

The key is to take your time and make the most educated decision you can. Even a bad trade can be remedied with some quality time on the waiver wire. Fantasy football is constantly changing, so just make sure you’re ready when it does.  

2015 Wide Receiver Rankings

This year, there are a lot of options at wide receiver. It’s probably the deepest position for 2015 besides perhaps quarterback. But this doesn’t mean you should wait too long to draft your first receiver, it just means there will still be value to be had after the sixth round. For your typical roster you’ll end up with about 4-8 receivers depending on your league’s scoring. Player’s marked with a $$ are players that should outperform their draft day values.

Two guys I’m targeting as deep sleepers are Eddie Royal, and Andrew Hawkins. Eddie Royal was already on my radar long before the Kelvin White injury. But when you couple that with the fact that Alshon Jeffery is dealing with an injury, it paints a rosy picture for Royal’s outlook. Royal is a seasoned veteran coming off his two most productive fantasy football seasons, and with White out he should lack for targets. I really like Cutler this season as well, so everything is trending up for his production.

I’m not going to lie, I was pretty down on Johnny Manziel, but he’s looked pretty sharp in the preseason. As a result, Cleveland receivers have seen a boost in my rankings. I’m not sure who’s going to be the top receiver in Cleveland at the end of the season, but if I don’t end up with Bowe, I’m not going to be upset landing Andrew Hawkins in the later rounds. Hawkins has the talent, and showed flashes of this last season, ending 2014 with more first downs than any other receiver or back on for The Browns. Hawkins is a gut call for me, but my gut says he’ll have a big season.

1. Demaryius Thomas DEN 21. Brandon Marshall NYJ 41. Percy Harvin BUF
2. Antonio Brown PIT 22. DeSean Jackson WAS 42. Devin Funchess CHI
3. Dez Bryant DAL 23. Amari Cooper OAK 43. Kendall Wright TEN
4. Alshon Jeffery CHI 24. Andre Johnson IND 44. DeVante Parker MIA
5. Randall Cobb GB 25. Mike Wallace MIN 45. Brandon Lafell NE
6. Julio Jones ATL 26. Jeremy Maclin KC 46. Charles Johnson MIN
7. Odell Beckham Jr. NYG 27. Nelson Agholor PHI $$ 47. Brian Quick STL $$
8. T.Y Hilton IND 28. Allen Robinson JAC 48. Dwayne Bowe CLE $$
9. Calvin Johnson DET 29. Eric Decker NYJ 49. Kenny Stills MIA
10.  Mike Evans TB 30. Marques Colston NO $$ 50. Donte Moncrief IND
11. A.J. Green CIN 31. Jarvis Landry MIA 51. . Doug Baldwin SEA
12. DeAndre Hopkins HOU 32. Victor Cruz NYG $$ 52.  Malcom Floyd SD
13. Emmanuel Sanders DEN 33. Roddy White ATL 53. Terrance Williams DAL
14. Julian Edelman NE 34. Martavis Bryant PIT 54. Dorial Green-Beckham TEN
15. Sammy Watkins BUF 35. Davante Adams GB $$ 55. Cody Latimer DEN
16. Brandin Cooks NO 36. Torrey Smith SF $$ 56. Marqise Lee JAC
17. Golden Tate DET 37. Steve Smith BAL 57. Cole Beasley DAL
18. Keenan Allen SD 38. Breshad Perriman BAL 58. Tyler Lockett SEA
19. Vincent Jackson TB $$ 39. Anquan Boldin SF 59.Marvin Jones CIN $$
20. Jordan Matthews PHI 40.  Larry Fitzgerald ARI 60. John Brown ARI

*Rankings are based on standard scoring.

Based on your league size, and how enthusiastic your fellow drafters are this may not be enough receiver depth. Below are a few more later round guys, that can still produce for your team.

Cecil Shorts HOU

Andrew Hawkins CLE

Danny Amendola NE

Eddie Royal CHI

Riley Cooper PHI

Pierre Garcon WAS

Rueben Randle NYG

Michael Crabtree OAK

Greg Jennings MIA

Allen Hurns JAC

Markus Wheaton PIT

Jarius Wright MIN

Mohamed Sanu CIN