Fantasy Football Keepers: Finding Value Pt 2

Before I get to the table/spreadsheet and what it all means. I want to give you a little background on this “project”.

The purpose of this “project” was to use last season’s ADP comparative to the season’s ADP to find likely keepers. I used my handy-dandy site  www.fantasyfootballcalculator.com to compare 2015 info to 2016 info and I was jotting down notes on my notepad. This player improved this many rounds, this player decreased this many rounds, etc. etc. etc.

Then my husband got involved.

My husband, God bless his soul, is an extremely intelligent man and oh-so helpful. He suggested I move all of the info to a google spreadsheet, and come up with a more precise comparison. Plus it would surely look more professional than all this chicken scratch I was currently working with. Okay, that doesn’t seem too bad.

Until I realized I had somehow copied and pasted wrong. Alright let’s delete all that info, and start over.

Then I had to go through and take out all the players from 2015 that were not being drafted, and all of the rookies being drafted in this seasons draft. Now my cells didn’t line up so that’s going to throw off my equation. I need to go through and tidy this up. By tidying, now my color coded lines don’t match up to player positions like they should, so I fix that.

Finally I have my values. I format the table to highlight the players who have had the most drastic increase in average draft position, but that’s just not enough. After tinkering I go a step further and feature all the players who not only increased their draft value but also offered you, the dedicated fantasy player, the most bang for your buck. How did I do this? By dividing their draft position increase by their current average draft round giving you their ultimate Fantasy Keeper Value.

2(+) hours later*, I am so glad that I took the easy way out. Thank you husband.

I sincerely hope that someone, somewhere out there finds this chart useful. Without further ado:

2016 ADP Player Position ADP Increase FKV
3 Todd Gurley RB 53 17.67
7 David Johnson RB 119 17.00
16 Jordy Nelson WR 204 12.75
22 Thomas Rawls RB 198 9.00
30 Kelvin Benjamin WR 190 6.33
17 Devonta Freeman RB 87 5.12
1 Antonio Brown WR 5 5.00
39 Jeremy Langford RB 181 4.64
40 Jordan Reed TE 180 4.50
47 Doug Baldwin WR 173 3.68
48 Dion Lewis RB 172 3.58
15 Allen Robinson WR 51 3.40
54 Jay Ajayi RB 166 3.07
8 DeAndre Hopkins WR 24 3.00
32 Cam Newton QB 88 2.75
4 Odell Beckham Jr WR 11 2.75
56 Allen Hurns WR 128 2.29
46 Matt Jones RB 93 2.02

These are your top 18 keeper prospects based on trending ADP numbers. Of course, this is based on their Average Draft Position and not their Actual Draft Position. So if  you took Antonio brown 1st overall he’s not going to have the same FKV (fantasy keeper value-another suggestion by my husband) as the chart suggests. But, it does give you a good idea of trending players, and a good smattering of fantasy prospects that I would suggest you at least consider keeping.

Some of my personal favorites are David Johnson, Dion Lewis, and Allen Hurns.

I hope this chart changes your life, as much as it changed mine.

 

 

*In my husbands defense, he is far better with mathematical analysis and chart building than I am. He expected this “project” to take me thirty minutes. He was wrong.

 

 

Advertisements

Fantasy Football Keepers: Finding Value From Last Season

Fantasy season is almost upon us! And in some leagues that means selecting your keepers for the upcoming season.

For those unaware, a keeper league allows you to keep typically 1-3 players on your team from last year. The round that they were drafted from the previous season is the round they will occupy in this seasons draft. For example, if you drafted Allen Hurns in the 14th round (his 2015 ADP) he would make an excellent keeper this season as his current ADP is the 6th round. Hurns finished as the 16th best fantasy football receiver* last year so getting that type of value from a 14th round pick is highly desirable.

That’s the goal, plain and simple. To find the players on your team that offer you the most value. But, as with anything in fantasy football it’s not quite as black and white as all that. It’s not as easy as RoundA-RoundB=Value. You also have to consider whether that player is worth their current ADP, the value of the players postions, as well as taking into consideration the value of the actual rounds you’re gaining. Going back to our Hurns example; by keeping Hurns you’re gaining eight rounds. Sounds pretty good right? But what if you could keep Todd Gurley instead? Gurley’s 2015 ADP was in the 5th round and this season he’s being drafted in the 1st. That’s a difference of four rounds. This is an example of how RoundA-RoundB=Value doesn’t hold up. Hurn’s eight rounds just don’t have as much value as Gurley’s  four. Getting a 1st rounder in the 5th round is just too good to pass up. Not only did Gurly perform better than Hurns (he was the 6th best running back last season), but top tier running backs are simply more highly prized than most wide receivers. For those reasons, Gurley’s four rounds are more valuable than Hurn’s eight.

And let’s talk more about rounds for a second. As a draft progresses rounds decrease in value. The reason for this is the quality of players dwindle, and as a result your chance for striking fantasy gold dwindle as well. So, those four rounds in and of themselves have more value than the eight Hurns will gain you.

There is so much more that goes into fantasy football than A+B=C. It’s more like

equation

And it’s not all numbers either, because honestly stats can be manipulated to tell pretty much any story you want them to tell. Some people will tell you to check your gut at the door when it comes to drafting. I am not one of those people. If you have a player that you feel strongly about, that you really feel will outplay his draft price, pick him up.

Now please don’t be crazy and use that advice to take a kicker in the sixth round. Do your research, be smart, mock draft like crazy, and check back to FootballFemme early and often for advice. But when it comes to selecting keepers these factors are a good place to start.

 

 

*fantasy stats based on ESPN standard scoring