Fantasy Football Keepers: Finding Value Pt 2

Before I get to the table/spreadsheet and what it all means. I want to give you a little background on this “project”.

The purpose of this “project” was to use last season’s ADP comparative to the season’s ADP to find likely keepers. I used my handy-dandy site  www.fantasyfootballcalculator.com to compare 2015 info to 2016 info and I was jotting down notes on my notepad. This player improved this many rounds, this player decreased this many rounds, etc. etc. etc.

Then my husband got involved.

My husband, God bless his soul, is an extremely intelligent man and oh-so helpful. He suggested I move all of the info to a google spreadsheet, and come up with a more precise comparison. Plus it would surely look more professional than all this chicken scratch I was currently working with. Okay, that doesn’t seem too bad.

Until I realized I had somehow copied and pasted wrong. Alright let’s delete all that info, and start over.

Then I had to go through and take out all the players from 2015 that were not being drafted, and all of the rookies being drafted in this seasons draft. Now my cells didn’t line up so that’s going to throw off my equation. I need to go through and tidy this up. By tidying, now my color coded lines don’t match up to player positions like they should, so I fix that.

Finally I have my values. I format the table to highlight the players who have had the most drastic increase in average draft position, but that’s just not enough. After tinkering I go a step further and feature all the players who not only increased their draft value but also offered you, the dedicated fantasy player, the most bang for your buck. How did I do this? By dividing their draft position increase by their current average draft round giving you their ultimate Fantasy Keeper Value.

2(+) hours later*, I am so glad that I took the easy way out. Thank you husband.

I sincerely hope that someone, somewhere out there finds this chart useful. Without further ado:

2016 ADP Player Position ADP Increase FKV
3 Todd Gurley RB 53 17.67
7 David Johnson RB 119 17.00
16 Jordy Nelson WR 204 12.75
22 Thomas Rawls RB 198 9.00
30 Kelvin Benjamin WR 190 6.33
17 Devonta Freeman RB 87 5.12
1 Antonio Brown WR 5 5.00
39 Jeremy Langford RB 181 4.64
40 Jordan Reed TE 180 4.50
47 Doug Baldwin WR 173 3.68
48 Dion Lewis RB 172 3.58
15 Allen Robinson WR 51 3.40
54 Jay Ajayi RB 166 3.07
8 DeAndre Hopkins WR 24 3.00
32 Cam Newton QB 88 2.75
4 Odell Beckham Jr WR 11 2.75
56 Allen Hurns WR 128 2.29
46 Matt Jones RB 93 2.02

These are your top 18 keeper prospects based on trending ADP numbers. Of course, this is based on their Average Draft Position and not their Actual Draft Position. So if  you took Antonio brown 1st overall he’s not going to have the same FKV (fantasy keeper value-another suggestion by my husband) as the chart suggests. But, it does give you a good idea of trending players, and a good smattering of fantasy prospects that I would suggest you at least consider keeping.

Some of my personal favorites are David Johnson, Dion Lewis, and Allen Hurns.

I hope this chart changes your life, as much as it changed mine.

 

 

*In my husbands defense, he is far better with mathematical analysis and chart building than I am. He expected this “project” to take me thirty minutes. He was wrong.

 

 

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Fantasy Football Keepers: Finding Value From Last Season

Fantasy season is almost upon us! And in some leagues that means selecting your keepers for the upcoming season.

For those unaware, a keeper league allows you to keep typically 1-3 players on your team from last year. The round that they were drafted from the previous season is the round they will occupy in this seasons draft. For example, if you drafted Allen Hurns in the 14th round (his 2015 ADP) he would make an excellent keeper this season as his current ADP is the 6th round. Hurns finished as the 16th best fantasy football receiver* last year so getting that type of value from a 14th round pick is highly desirable.

That’s the goal, plain and simple. To find the players on your team that offer you the most value. But, as with anything in fantasy football it’s not quite as black and white as all that. It’s not as easy as RoundA-RoundB=Value. You also have to consider whether that player is worth their current ADP, the value of the players postions, as well as taking into consideration the value of the actual rounds you’re gaining. Going back to our Hurns example; by keeping Hurns you’re gaining eight rounds. Sounds pretty good right? But what if you could keep Todd Gurley instead? Gurley’s 2015 ADP was in the 5th round and this season he’s being drafted in the 1st. That’s a difference of four rounds. This is an example of how RoundA-RoundB=Value doesn’t hold up. Hurn’s eight rounds just don’t have as much value as Gurley’s  four. Getting a 1st rounder in the 5th round is just too good to pass up. Not only did Gurly perform better than Hurns (he was the 6th best running back last season), but top tier running backs are simply more highly prized than most wide receivers. For those reasons, Gurley’s four rounds are more valuable than Hurn’s eight.

And let’s talk more about rounds for a second. As a draft progresses rounds decrease in value. The reason for this is the quality of players dwindle, and as a result your chance for striking fantasy gold dwindle as well. So, those four rounds in and of themselves have more value than the eight Hurns will gain you.

There is so much more that goes into fantasy football than A+B=C. It’s more like

equation

And it’s not all numbers either, because honestly stats can be manipulated to tell pretty much any story you want them to tell. Some people will tell you to check your gut at the door when it comes to drafting. I am not one of those people. If you have a player that you feel strongly about, that you really feel will outplay his draft price, pick him up.

Now please don’t be crazy and use that advice to take a kicker in the sixth round. Do your research, be smart, mock draft like crazy, and check back to FootballFemme early and often for advice. But when it comes to selecting keepers these factors are a good place to start.

 

 

*fantasy stats based on ESPN standard scoring

 

Rob Gronkowski 2016 Fantasy Football Profile

Trying to decide if Gronkowski is worth a first round pick? Football Femme has the answer! Or at least an educated guess

Your Fantasy Football Coach

Last season, Rob Gronkowski was the top tight end in Fantasy Football to the surprise of absolutely no one.

Gronk has established himself as an elite Fantasy tight end ever since his second season in the league in 2011. He scored 241 points, and that was with teammate Aaron Hernandez finishing with 138 Fantasy points.

Since then, he has finished in the top two every season he’s played. Of course, that is barring his 2013 season which was prematurely ended Week 7 due to an ACL tear.

So should you ride The Gronk Party Bus again this season? Is there any reason not to draft him? Let’s take a quick look at his 2015 Fantasy Football performance before answering that question.

Rob Gronkowski: 2015 Fantasy Football Review

Gronk finished the 2015 season with 72 receptions, 1,176 yards, and 11 touchdowns. That  translated to 184 Fantasy points.

He finished with fewer receptions than the previous…

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Rob Gronkowski has missed a full weeks worth of camp: The Fantasy Implications

New England tight end and fantasy football stud, Rob Gronkowski, has been quietly absent from The Patriots mandatory minicamp.

While according to both Gronkowski and Head Coach Bill Belichick he has been busy doing “other things“, ESPN’s Mike Reiss is reporting that the star is “working back from [an] undisclosed ailment that isn’t viewed as a long range concern”.

Gronk has had a rocky injury history, including a broken arm in 2012 that had him on the sideline for six games, a torn ACL in week seven 2013 that ended his season, and four surgeries on his forearm in 2013. Gronkowski also had a lot of people worried in 2015 when he suffered a hard hit to his previously ACL repaired knee. Though the hit looked nasty, Gronk was only out one game.

While his current injury is very likely and as report a minor one, it is worth noting for fantasy players. Bill Belichick is doing all he can to keep his stud player fresh, but being Tom Brady and The Patriots go-to-guy does take a toll on the body. It makes sense that Belichick would continue to keep a close eye and a tight leash on Gronk through the 2016 season as well. The Patriots already took a step in this direction by drafting former Chicago Bear TE Martellus Bennett, and Bennett isn’t just a pretty face. He was a consistent performer for The Bears and beat out even Gronk for receptions in 2014. It’s hard to imagine him not eating in to some of Gronkowski’s fantasy points.

Gronkowski is one of the best offensive weapons on the field and barring injury it’s hard to imagine him not cracking the top five most productive fantasy tight ends in 2016. However, I’m tempering my usually high expectations for Gronk this upcoming season. According to FantasyPros.com his current ADP is in the first round, and that’s just too steep a price to pay for me.

 

CJ Prosise MiniCamp Injury?

While the word of CJ Prosise’s progress in camp is positive, it seems like the running back may be nursing a hip flexor injury suffered early in OTAs. Injuries like this often occur during sprinting activities and can range from a minor injury (quick recovery and still maintaining full function) to a major one. (all muscle fibers are ruptured resulting in complete loss of function) Luckily for CJ it seems like his injury is a minor one.

Head Coach Pete Carroll finds the setback “frustrating”, due to his “big plans” for his new running back. To find out what I think those big plans could be check out my newest article at YourFantasyFootballCoach.com:

CJ Prosise: Fantasy Profile

Rookie muscle, tendon, and bone injuries seem to be becoming more commonplace. I’m not sure if this is because of the increased availability of information, so we’re simply more aware of the issue, or if there is some kind of breakdown in the conditioning needed to transition new recruits into the demanding expectations of the NFL. While Rookies are often expected to start proving themselves early on, often their bodies and conditioning aren’t up to snuff. This site hopes to delve more into this issue in the future.

 

 

 

Joey Bosa: Contract Hold Out

Joey Bosa is making headlines not for his progress in the Chargers Minicamp, but for not showing up for camp at all.

Bosa is the latest rookie to hold on on a contract due to “offset language”. But what is offset language? My (limited) understanding is that by having this legal precedent in the contract The Chargers are able to offset a part of Joey Bosa’s salary IF he is released by the organization before his full four year contract is up. So, say Bosa isn’t up to snuff and they give him the boot. The Chargers will only be liable for the difference between his contractual salary with them, and the new salary he would receive by signing with a new team. Makes sense. A team doesn’t want to pay for a service they are no longer receiving.

But Bosa would like to be guaranteed the full amount of his salary, independent of his tenure with the team. This allows him the opportunity to “double-dip” so to speak. If released, he could be drawing a salary from both The Chargers, and his new team.

While to us mere fans this could seem a bit trite (“Pay the man his money”, “NFL Exec’s are making way more than any players”, “He’s getting millions to play the sport he loves, why is he being so greedy”) this isn’t the first time or the last that “offset language” has come between a player and a team. Marcus Mariota for example held out until right before the season started for the very same reason. Though there were rumors at the time it had something to do with a surfing clause?? There have been crazier things in football.

Ultimately a contract WILL BE SIGNED. There’s no way The Chargers are going to let go of the first non-quarterback to be taken in the 2016 NFL Draft. They wanted him, and now they are pretty much stuck with him.

Bosa was named The Big Ten Defensive Lineman of the Year, Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year, First Team All American and  All-Big Ten as well as being a Lombardi Award Finalist his sophmore season. (2014) He repeated all but Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year his junior season (2015) after which he declared for the 2016 NFL Draft. Bosa amassed 146 tackles, 26 sacks, and one interception in just three years playing for Ohio State. He was drafted third overall in the 2016 NFL Draft.