Fantasy Football Keepers: Finding Value From Last Season

Fantasy season is almost upon us! And in some leagues that means selecting your keepers for the upcoming season.

For those unaware, a keeper league allows you to keep typically 1-3 players on your team from last year. The round that they were drafted from the previous season is the round they will occupy in this seasons draft. For example, if you drafted Allen Hurns in the 14th round (his 2015 ADP) he would make an excellent keeper this season as his current ADP is the 6th round. Hurns finished as the 16th best fantasy football receiver* last year so getting that type of value from a 14th round pick is highly desirable.

That’s the goal, plain and simple. To find the players on your team that offer you the most value. But, as with anything in fantasy football it’s not quite as black and white as all that. It’s not as easy as RoundA-RoundB=Value. You also have to consider whether that player is worth their current ADP, the value of the players postions, as well as taking into consideration the value of the actual rounds you’re gaining. Going back to our Hurns example; by keeping Hurns you’re gaining eight rounds. Sounds pretty good right? But what if you could keep Todd Gurley instead? Gurley’s 2015 ADP was in the 5th round and this season he’s being drafted in the 1st. That’s a difference of four rounds. This is an example of how RoundA-RoundB=Value doesn’t hold up. Hurn’s eight rounds just don’t have as much value as Gurley’s  four. Getting a 1st rounder in the 5th round is just too good to pass up. Not only did Gurly perform better than Hurns (he was the 6th best running back last season), but top tier running backs are simply more highly prized than most wide receivers. For those reasons, Gurley’s four rounds are more valuable than Hurn’s eight.

And let’s talk more about rounds for a second. As a draft progresses rounds decrease in value. The reason for this is the quality of players dwindle, and as a result your chance for striking fantasy gold dwindle as well. So, those four rounds in and of themselves have more value than the eight Hurns will gain you.

There is so much more that goes into fantasy football than A+B=C. It’s more like

equation

And it’s not all numbers either, because honestly stats can be manipulated to tell pretty much any story you want them to tell. Some people will tell you to check your gut at the door when it comes to drafting. I am not one of those people. If you have a player that you feel strongly about, that you really feel will outplay his draft price, pick him up.

Now please don’t be crazy and use that advice to take a kicker in the sixth round. Do your research, be smart, mock draft like crazy, and check back to FootballFemme early and often for advice. But when it comes to selecting keepers these factors are a good place to start.

 

 

*fantasy stats based on ESPN standard scoring

 

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Rob Gronkowski 2016 Fantasy Football Profile

Trying to decide if Gronkowski is worth a first round pick? Football Femme has the answer! Or at least an educated guess

Your Fantasy Football Coach

Last season, Rob Gronkowski was the top tight end in Fantasy Football to the surprise of absolutely no one.

Gronk has established himself as an elite Fantasy tight end ever since his second season in the league in 2011. He scored 241 points, and that was with teammate Aaron Hernandez finishing with 138 Fantasy points.

Since then, he has finished in the top two every season he’s played. Of course, that is barring his 2013 season which was prematurely ended Week 7 due to an ACL tear.

So should you ride The Gronk Party Bus again this season? Is there any reason not to draft him? Let’s take a quick look at his 2015 Fantasy Football performance before answering that question.

Rob Gronkowski: 2015 Fantasy Football Review

Gronk finished the 2015 season with 72 receptions, 1,176 yards, and 11 touchdowns. That  translated to 184 Fantasy points.

He finished with fewer receptions than the previous…

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Steelers Tight End Ladarius Green Is Undervalued

Former Charger, Ladarius Green is currently being drafted in the ninth round behind Rob Gronkowski, Jordan Reed, Greg Olsen, Tyler Eifert, Travis Kelce, Delanie Walker and Coby Fleener. Of those players only Rob Gronkowski and Tyler Eifert had more touchdowns than Green in the first seven games of the season. Green had four, Eifert had five, and Gronk reeled in six. The only problem is, after week seven Green never had more than two receptions per game.

I’ll be honest with you Green’s stats don’t exactly translate to a fantasy football stud. Last season was the best season so far of his career. He had 37 receptions, for 429 yards, and four touchdowns. The only stand out stats he can boast is a healthy YPC average (14.1) and zero fumbles. His problem was he just couldn’t shake the shadow of legendary tight end Antonio Gates. Gates has an incredibly strong rapport with Chargers quarterback Phillip Rivers, and is one heck of an athlete. Greens only brief time to shine was due to Gates suspension in 2015. It’s tough to beat out an already established veteran player, especially one who has such a strong connection with his quarterback. But in spite of those stats the Pittsburgh Steelers liked what they saw in those seven weeks. They signed Green the first day free agency opened to the sweet tune of 20 million over four years, and it couldn’t have come at a better time.

Green is joining one of the best offenses in the league, who are currently desperately in need of a new face after losing long time tight end Heath Miller to retirement. Over the past four seasons Miller averaged 88 targets per season, and his 592 receptions are the sixth most in league history by a tight end. Green is bigger and faster than Miller. In fact, he’s one of the biggest targets for Big Ben currently on the field. Ben has a history of leaning on his tight end when he’s in a jam and Green will have a chance to shine early in the season, as The Steelers are going to be short an offensive weapon (Martavius Bryant) due to suspension.

His current competition for the job is second year tight end Jesse James. James was used very sparingly in 2015, and there hasn’t been a lot of chatter from camps about his progress. Likely James will face the same issue that Green is leaving, trying to beat out a veteran tight end. In my mind, there’s no way that Green doesn’t end up on top.

But don’t just take my word for it. I’m not the only one thinking Green could be poised for success in 2016. Marc Sessler, writer for NFL.com has Green as the #1 player on his list of players who “aren’t getting the attention they deserve“. ESPN even gave him a shout out in their ESPN predictions for 2016 with Jeremy Fowler almost guaranteeing Green “will become a breakout star” in the Steelers high octane offense.

Take it to the bank, there are big things in store for Green this season.

 

 

 

 

 

*I feel in all fairness I should note that I am a huge Steelers fan.

*Also, my go-to guru Matthew Berry is not a fan of Green. Boo to you Berry.

 

Rob Gronkowski has missed a full weeks worth of camp: The Fantasy Implications

New England tight end and fantasy football stud, Rob Gronkowski, has been quietly absent from The Patriots mandatory minicamp.

While according to both Gronkowski and Head Coach Bill Belichick he has been busy doing “other things“, ESPN’s Mike Reiss is reporting that the star is “working back from [an] undisclosed ailment that isn’t viewed as a long range concern”.

Gronk has had a rocky injury history, including a broken arm in 2012 that had him on the sideline for six games, a torn ACL in week seven 2013 that ended his season, and four surgeries on his forearm in 2013. Gronkowski also had a lot of people worried in 2015 when he suffered a hard hit to his previously ACL repaired knee. Though the hit looked nasty, Gronk was only out one game.

While his current injury is very likely and as report a minor one, it is worth noting for fantasy players. Bill Belichick is doing all he can to keep his stud player fresh, but being Tom Brady and The Patriots go-to-guy does take a toll on the body. It makes sense that Belichick would continue to keep a close eye and a tight leash on Gronk through the 2016 season as well. The Patriots already took a step in this direction by drafting former Chicago Bear TE Martellus Bennett, and Bennett isn’t just a pretty face. He was a consistent performer for The Bears and beat out even Gronk for receptions in 2014. It’s hard to imagine him not eating in to some of Gronkowski’s fantasy points.

Gronkowski is one of the best offensive weapons on the field and barring injury it’s hard to imagine him not cracking the top five most productive fantasy tight ends in 2016. However, I’m tempering my usually high expectations for Gronk this upcoming season. According to FantasyPros.com his current ADP is in the first round, and that’s just too steep a price to pay for me.

 

Pharoh Cooper: 2016 Fantasy Football Profile

Taking a look at Pharoh Cooper on YourFantasyFootballCoach.com

Your Fantasy Football Coach

First things first about Pharoh Cooper: He has a really cool name.

Seriously, props to his family for the fancy moniker. But a nice name isn’t enough to justify a spot on your 2016 Fantasy Football roster.

He was a fourth-round pick for the Los Angeles Rams, a team that will either have a rookie quarterback or Case Keenum under center in Week 1.

Is Cooper worth drafting in non-dynasty leagues? Let’s take a look…

Pharoh Cooper: College Stats

Cooper is 5-foot-11, 208 pounds and played for South Carolina in college.

Though Cooper got off to a slow start in college, he showed a lot of versatility. He finished his freshman season with 54 receiving yards, 202 rushing yards, scored one rushing touchdown, and completed two of three pass attempts for 29 yards and one touchdown.

In his sophomore season, he broke the school record for single-game receiving yards (233)…

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How To Utilize The NFL Strength of Schedule Rankings For Fantasy Football

There are only 80 days until NFL kickoff and there’s no time like the present to start working on you draft strategy. While SOS shouldn’t be the primary source to influence your draft scheme it can be extremely helpful when deciding between players. When combined with offensive rankings you can pick teams with players who are more likely to produce fantasy football studs. But that doesn’t mean that teams with a tough schedule should be overlooked

Teams in the bottom third of rankings will have more games where they are playing ahead. This benefits running backs who will be used to run out the clock. It creates a more difficult environment for quarterbacks who will be more likely to play more conservatively to maintain their lead. Teams with the toughest SOS will be playing from behind. This benefits wide receivers. Quarterbacks will take the biggest hit due to tough defenses.

The site FFtoolbox took it a step farther by breaking it down by points allowed by position by opposing team.

I just brought all this info to one accessible place!

The main benefit though (as stated before) is using SOS to choose between players that you already like. So, if there are two RBs that you really like and one has a tougher schedule, it makes more sense to go for the guy with the easier schedule. Easy Peasy.

Start your draft day engines boys and girls. It’s right around the corner.

Rank Team Offensive Rank Position To Target
1. San Francisco 49ers 32nd
2. Atlanta Falcons 21st KR
3. Los Angeles Rams 29th
4. New Orleans Saints 6th TE
5. Seattle Seahawks 8th RB
6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20th RB/TE
7. Arizona Cardinals 2nd
8. New York Jets 10th
9. New England Patriots 3rd KR
10. Buffalo Bills 12th
11. Miami Dolphins 27th
12. Carolina Panthers 1st TE
13. San Diego Chargers 25th TE
14. Denver Broncos 18th
15. Oakland Raiders 16th DEF
16. Kansas City Chiefs 9th TE
17. Washington Redskins 11th K
18. Minnesota Vikings 19th DEF
19. Houston Texans 26th DEF
20. Baltimore Ravens 24th K
21. Cleveland Browns 30th KR
22. Indianapolis Colts 23rd DEF
23. Pittsburgh Steelers 7th WR
24. Tennessee Titans 28th DEF
25. Jacksonville Jaguars 14th DEF
26. Philadelphia Eagles 13th K
27. Cincinnati Bengals 5th WR
28. Detroit Lions 17th QB
29. Dallas Cowboys 31st WR
30. Chicago Bears 22nd DEF
31. New York Giants 4th QB/RB
32. Green Bay Packers 5th QB

*SOS from ESPN Offensive Rankings from OddsShark Rankings based on FFtoolbox

Is Tampa Bay Coach Dirk Koetter Scared Of Going For Two?

Two point conversions seem to be a hot topic of late. Big Ben Roethlisberger has been outspoken in his opinion of the two point play, and fellow quarterback Drew Brees has weighed in as well. Both are strongly in support.

Now Tampa Bay  Head Coach Dirk Koetter is giving his two cents on two point conversions. During an interview with WDAE-AM in Tampa Bay Koetter admitted that going for two is the smart play mathematically. Summing it up nicely  he said, “We’ve studied it, and mathematically, it does make sense.” So why is the Tampa Bay coach hesitant to commit to changing his offensive strategy?

Well according to the coach, he’s afraid of getting “dog cussed”. Now I am from the south, but dog cussed isn’t one that I’ve personally heard, though from context we can safely assume that’s not a good thing. “Say we go out there that first game, and we score three touchdowns and we don’t make any two pointers and we lose 21-18. Who’s going to get killed? Your’re going to be on [the radio] and you’re going to be dog cussin’ me the whole time.”

While a good dog cussin’ may keep Dirk Koetter up at night, I’m sure he’s far more worried about keeping his job. Koetter is right in the fact that at the end of the day it all comes down to points on the board. While going for two makes sense for some teams, such as the Pittsburgh Steelers, it’s not a viable offensive strategy for others. For teams to be successful in going for two, they are going to have to have a game plan. They will have to be confident in their play calling and they’ll have to have multiple endzone weapons. For teams who are weaker offensively it just doesn’t make sense to take the risk. Because make no mistake, it is a risk. Extra point kicks are far more successful in the long run.

The rule change last season has no doubt changed NFL game play (in my opinion for the better). No longer is the two point conversion a play of desperation and PATs aren’t the guaranteed points they use to be, not all teams are going to be as quick to the learning curve as the Pittsburgh Steelers.

So while Koetter may not be the bravest coach in the NFL, he may be one of the smarter ones.